Sunday's pandemic data suggest latest surge is slowing in Ky.; half of state's 200,000 total cases came in last month and a half

Kentucky Health News graph, based on unadjusted initial daily reports of new cases

By Al Cross
Kentucky Health News

Nine months to the day after Kentucky found its first case of the novel coronavirus, its total number of cases surpassed 200,000. That was the thrust of Gov. Andy Beshear's daily press release. What it didn't say is that the last 100,000 cases were found in the past month and a half.

But, as Beshear noted, the recent surge of virus cases, Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths seems to be abating. The seven-day rolling average of new cases dropped for the first time in almost a week, to 3,406, with Sunday's addition of 2,567 new cases -- 8.4 percent less than last Sunday's 2,803. (Sunday and Monday numbers tend to be low because of limited testing.)

Other, more stable, daily indicators were down. Covid-19 hospital cases fell 3.35%, to 1,673, and 401 of them were in intensive-care units, the same as Saturday; the number of ICU patients on ventilators fell by 12, to 214. Beshear reported 10 deaths from covid-19, the lowest number in more than a week.

The share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus in the last seven days fell for the third day, to 9.75%. Still, that's almost double the percentage that public-health experts say is a warning sign; it's been above 5% since Oct. 22.

“These are difficult numbers, having passed 200,000 cases and earlier this week passing 2,000 deaths. And now this is our highest week to date,” Beshear said in the release. “However, in the data there is some potentially good news: While this is our highest week ever, the rate of growth does appear to be slowing. In other words, our increase from the last couple of weeks is less than what we have been seeing. Certainly, our hope is that we are slowing down this train and are moving at least to a new plateau. We’ll have to watch in the coming week if we do have that Thanksgiving surge, or if the majority of our families kept it small this year.” 

New York Times chart, Ky. Health News label; click on it to enlarge

Beshear said the encouraging news “should make all of us want to work that much harder knowing that we can impact this thing, that it is within our control and that a vaccine – two vaccines – are just around the corner.”

It will take months for the vaccines to be available to anyone, so Health Commissioner Steven Stack urged continued caution as they are rolled out among the most vulnerable groups. “The coming weeks remain critical and come with sacrifices,” he said in the release. “We must make good decisions every day and protect fellow Kentuckians by wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and staying home if we are sick. Doing so will save lives. It won’t be easy, but Team Kentucky is strong and supportive. We look out for each other, take care of those in need, and will get through this together.”

Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron continued to wait for action by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who is considering Cameron's application to restore an injunction by a federal judge exempting religious schools from Beshear's ban on in-person education. Beshear's side was supported in a brief by 13 scholars who identified themselves as experts on issues of church and state; they argue, among other things, that the injunction violates the "establishment of religion" clause of the First Amendment by favoring religious schools over other schools. Other briefs took the side of Cameron and Danville Christian Academy; here's a list.

In other coronavirus news Sunday:

• The 10 additional Covid-19 fatalities confirmed were a 68-year-old Barren County woman; two Fayette County men, 64 and 74; two Jefferson County women, 69 and 71; a 65-year-old Jessamine County woman; a Laurel County man, 84; a Lewis County man, 81; a Mason County man, 68; and a Washington County man, 72.
• The state will memorialize the 2,072 Kentuckians who have died from Covid-19 in a ceremony in front of the Capitol at 2 p.m. Monday. The state police honor guard will place a wreath, an ensemble from First United Methodist Church in Frankfort will ring bells, and baritone Keith Dean will sing a solo.
• Counties with more than 10 new cases were: Jefferson, 446; Fayette, 233; Kenton, 135; Boone, 93; Boyd, 72; Warren, 71; Madison, 70; Pulaski, 60; Campbell, 50; McCracken, 50; Daviess, 47; Mason, 46; Henderson, 42; Franklin, 39; Oldham, 38; Caldwell, 37; Shelby, 35; Bullitt, 34; Jessamine, 33; Whitley, 30; Muhlenberg, 27; Breathitt, 26; Hardin, 25; Henry and Taylor, 23; Boyle, Graves and Pike, 22; Greenup, Ohio and Scott, 21; Magoffin, 20; Calloway, Grant and Johnson, 19; Barren and Simpson, 18; Harlan and Lawrence, 17; Bell, Floyd, Garrard, Spencer and Woodford, 16; Rockcastle, 15; Christian, Elliott and Owen, 14; Marshall, Mercer, Rowan and Trimble, 13; Hart, 12; and Allen, 11.
• John Cheves of the Lexington Herald-Leader looks at the Covid-19 deaths of residents in state veterans' nursing homes, focusing on the Thomson-Hood Veterans Center in Wilmore, which has lost 20% of its 154 residents to the disease.
• Beshear issued a press release about Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day, which is Monday, alluding but not specifically referring to collective American resolve at at time of national crisis: "America did not emerge victorious just on the battlefield. For four years, Americans suffered restrictions and rationing here at home. To have to endure that, after a decade of severe privation during the Great Depression, must have seemed more than anyone could stand. We did stand it. We gave up driving because the troops needed the tire rubber and the steel and the gasoline for cars. We grew Victory Gardens and canned everything. We saved every scrap, went without, endured Thanksgivings and Christmases without loved ones. We did it year after hard year because every sacrifice meant saving the lives of the troops fighting overseas."
• The Associated Press looked at hardships being caused by the pandemic in Kentucky as its senior senator, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, negotiates the next relief bill, and reports that the political pressure in the state is on Beshear, not McConnell. "Beshear has carefully avoided calling out McConnell or President Donald Trump as the impasse drags on. Republicans dominated federal and state elections last month in Kentucky," Bruce Schreiner and Piper Hudspeth Blackburn report for AP.
• The Washington Post explains why initial shipments of coronavirus vaccine will be about a third of what states expected: "manufacturing problems, bottlenecks in the supply of raw materials and other hurdles in ramping up clinical-trial production of 5 liters of protein-based vaccine at a time to commercial-scale fermentation of 2,000-liter batches, the companies and the Trump administration said."
• The leader of the administration's effort to develop vaccines predicted a "significant decrease" in deaths among the elderly by the end of January, as nursing-home residents are immunized. Moncef Slaoui spoke on CBS's "Face the Nation." He said on CNN’s "State of the Union" that most of the “highly susceptible population” of about 100 million could be immunized by mid-March.
• Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that every state "needs to increase their mitigation, and every state needs to be critically informing their state population that the gatherings that we saw in Thanksgiving will lead to a surge," and that they can't be repeated in the Christmas season "if you don't want to lose your grandparents, your aunts. . . . You cannot gather without masks in any indoor or close outdoor situation."
• Asked about flouting of such warnings by President Trump and members of his administration, Birx tacitly acknowledged that it's a problem. "I hear community members parroting back those situations. Parroting back that masks don't work. Parroting back that we should work towards herd immunity. Parroting back that gatherings don't result in superspreading events," Birx said. "And I think our job is to constantly say, “Those are myths, they are wrong and you can see the evidence base."