Positive-test rate hits new high, likely due to less testing, state says, but cases also had a spike, and so did Covid-19 deaths

Kentucky Health News graph, based on state reports; for a larger version, click on it.

By Al Cross
Kentucky Health News

FRANKFORT, Ky., Jan. 2 -- As the new year began, the pandemic in Kentucky had spikes of Covid-19 deaths and the seven-day average of residents who tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

The last day of 2020 was Kentucky's third most deadly of the pandemic, as the state attributed 39 deaths to Covid-19, its third highest one-day total. As with most daily reports, some deaths likely occurred earlier, but 14 deaths Friday and 22 Saturday made a total of 75, and one of the pandemic's more deadly three-day periods.

The percentage of positive tests hit a new high Saturday, 10.79%, but state officials attributed the spike to fewer tests, and a resulting concentration of tests in circumstances where infection was more likely.

"Gov. Andy Beshear said the state’s elevated positivity rate is likely due to some labs and public testing sites being closed over the holiday, which increases the percentage of tests conducted in medical settings where patients are experiencing symptoms and suspect they have the virus," said a release from Beshear's office.

The seven-day average rose significantly every day since Sunday, probably reflecting lab closures during last week's Christmas holidays and this week's New Year's holidays. The rates were 7.97% Monday, 8.41% Tuesday, 9.09% Wednesday, 9.89% Thursday, 10.32% Friday and 10.79% Saturday. The previous high was 10.07% on Dec. 3, a week after Thanksgiving.

The holiday schedule has also skewed the number of new infection cases. On Thursday, Dec, 31, the state reported 4,145 new cases, its third largest one-day figure. Friday and Saturday saw 3,124 and 1,470 cases, respectively, and Saturday's seven-day average of new cases was 2,640, the most since Dec. 24.

The most stable measurements, hospital cases, remained mostly stable. From Monday to Tuesday, Covid-19 hospitalizations in Kentucky hospitals jumped 5.3%, but trended downward the next three days. Saturday's total was 1,635, with 428 of them in intensive care and 211 of those on ventilators.

For the first time, the state's daily report showed a red flag for hospital capacity in northeastern Kentucky, where 82% of inpatient beds and 72% of intensive-care beds were reported to be in use. The state's threshold for flagging a region is 80 percent.

The report continued to flag the easternmost and Lake Cumberland hospital-readiness regions, where ICU beds were 82% and 96% full, respectively. In the Barren River region, ICU beds were 76% full. On Thursday, all four of those regions were flagged.

Beshear said in the release, “Every day we are reminded how fragile the progress we have made in defeating this virus really is. We will wait and watch closely over the coming days and weeks to gauge the impact the holidays may have had on our recent success in slowing new case growth. With more vaccines arriving in 2021, we have a new sense of hope but right now we must all continue to do our part to stop this virus, including wearing a mask and avoiding large in-person gatherings.”

The 75 deaths in the last three days brought the state's total to 2,698, 71% of which have been in long-term care facilities, the second highest rate in the nation.

The state released age, gender and county information only for Thursday's 39 fatalities: a Bell County man, 82; a Boone County man, 77; a Bullitt County man, 87; a Campbell County man, 78; a Daviess County man and woman, 63 and 66; a Fayette County woman, 84; a Franklin County man, 83; a Grant County man, 62; a Harlan County man, 72; a Henderson County man, 31; a Jackson County man, 87; four Jefferson County women, 73, 77, 80 and 96; two Jefferson County men, 72 and 87; a Kenton County woman, 95; a Lewis County man, 80; A Livingston County man and woman, 88 and 92; two Madison County women, 87 and 98; a Madison County man, 79; a Mason County woman, 91; a Muhlenberg County woman, 87; a Perry County woman, 83, Two Pulaski County women, 86 and 89; a Russell County man and woman, 48 and 90; a Shelby County woman, 60; a Taylor County woman, 81; two Washington County man, 62 and 68; and a Whitley County woman, 59.

The state did not release county-by-county information on new cases recorded Friday. Counties with more than 10 new cases Saturday were: Jefferson, 353; Pike, 77; Fayette, 67; Kenton, 49; Hardin, 37; Greenup, 35; Campbell, 33; Daviess, 30; Madison, 29; Christian, 27; Knox, Mercer and Oldham, 26; Bullitt and Shelby, 25; Harrison, 24; Bell and Hopkins, 23; Boyle, Carter, Floyd, Letcher and Warren, 21; Graves, 19; Franklin, 17; Lawrence, 16; Calloway and Perry, 15; Clay, Scott and Trigg, 14; Boone, 13; and Estill, McCracken and Muhlenberg, 11.

Counties with more than 10 new cases Thursday were: Jefferson, 524; Fayette, 411; Kenton, 179; Boone, 146; Oldham, 126; Daviess, 125, Warren, 122; Hardin, 121; Boyd, 105; Christian, 80; Campbell, 72; Boyle and Pike, 70; Madison, 67; Graves and Hopkins, 63; Laurel, 59; Nelson, 54; Whitley, 49; Carter, 47; Rowan, 44; Bullitt, 43; Muhlenberg, 39; Harlan and Shelby, 38; Floyd and Jessamine, 37; Knox, 36; Wayne, 35; Greenup and Pulaski, 34; Letcher and McCracken, 33; Clay, 32; Fleming, 29; Anderson, Marshall and Taylor, 28; McCreary, 27; Logan, 26; Bell and Lewis, 25; Barren, Calloway and Harrison, 24; Mason, Mercer, Ohio and Rockcastle, 23; Breathitt, Monroe, Perry and Woodford, 22; Lawrence, 20; Allen and Grant, 19; Henderson, Lincoln, Meade, Scott and Todd, 17; Elliott, Garrard, Marion and Simpson, 16; Grayson, Hancock and Johnson, 15; Clinton, 14; Bourbon, Jackson, Morgan and Nicholas, 13; Butler, Cumberland and LaRue, 12; and Carroll, Franklin and Menifee, 11.

In other coronavirus news:

• Only one treatment for Covid-19 is designed to keep people out of the hospital, but "Many overburdened hospitals are not offering it," The Washington Post reports. "Because of logistical challenges, only 20 percent of monoclonal antibodies distributed by the government have been used, officials say."
• Media Matters, a liberal media-criticism newsroom, named Fox News "Misinformer of the Year" for promoting "coronavirus misinformation an estimated 13,551 times on its weekday programs over the course of the pandemic," not including the channel's popular nighttime commentary shows.