A new study predicts that compliance with Kentucky's new emergency orders to thwart the coronavirus could save up to 1,000 lives in the Louisville region, and presumably have similar results across Kentucky.
The study also forecasts 1,689 active hospitalizations in mid-January with little to no compliance, up from about 350 now. High compliance would reduce hospitalizations to about 100, the study predicts.
Stack noted that for three weeks, the state made recommendations that public-health officials said would have brought down Kentucky's infection rates if they had been followed. Stack said Kentucky health officials were "asking, urging, begging, pleading, trying to persuade with facts and figures, and also appeals to people's better angels" to try to get people to comply, but it didn't work.
"And as a result, because we can't stand by idling and let Kentuckians who can't otherwise protect themselves who are vulnerable, pay with their lives, literally. . . . The additional measures became necessary," he said. "And if we were just to comply fully with the mask mandate, that alone probably would help to contain this virus and get us back to reopening all these different things that are now shuttered. So ultimately, it's the public's choice, how we're going to respond."
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| Steven Stack, M.D. (April 2020 photo) |
Stack, a physican, called on local leaders and individuals to step up and do their part to improve compliance in their communities. He also urged Kentuckians to not celebrate Thanksgiving with anyone who is not in their households, calling it an "assured recipe for disaster."
"This is really important. This is a defining moment. And we're gonna have a dark winter if we don't pull it together," he said. "And we want to lift as many of these restrictions as fast as we can, as soon as we can feel more confident that it won't be paid for with large-scale loss of human life and harm to other people who need medical and hospital care who don't have covid."
Last week, Beshear banned in-person schooling and indoor service in bars and restaurants, limited indoor gyms and recreation facilities to one-third capacity, with no group classes; placed a limit of 25 people in all venues, event spaces and theatres; limited professional spaces to one-third capacity along with a call for them to allow people to work at home or to close altogether if at all possible; and limited sizes of gatherings to eight people from a maximum of two families. Beshear also asked churches to stop in-person worship. In addition, the mask mandate remains in effect.
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| University of Louisville graph, adapted by Ky. Health News |
The
second study Stack discussed looked at compliance with the mask mandate in Jefferson County. It found that men aged 19 to 44 were the least likely to wear a mask. Researchers who observed 191 public areas found that men made up 82% of unmasked staff and 75% of unmasked visitors, and more than half of the incorrectly masked visitors.
The study also compared mask compliance in small, medium and large public areas and found that compliance was worst in small areas; 35% of such areas had at least one unmasked visitor, compared to 23% in medium-sized areas and 14% in large areas. Large areas had the highest rate of at least one visitor wearing their mask incorrectly, 61%.
Daily data, threat to hospitals: Beshear announced 2,135 new cases of the coronavirus, another record for a Monday, a day that is typically low because of limited laboratory work on weekends. This follows the highest week for cases yet, up 22 percent from the week before.
"With what we're going to see happening over Thanksgiving, we're headed to an even darker place than we are right now," Beshear said. "That's why we're taking the steps that we're taking, to put up a fight against a virus that wants to take those we love. And it's our job to fight for those individuals. "
The share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus in the past seven days dropped a bit, to 8.97%. It had been above 9% since Tuesday, Nov. 17.
The state reported another day of highs for covid-19 hospitalizations and intensive-care-unit beds: 1,573 and 391, respectively. Of the ICU patients, 203 were on ventilators.
Beshear was asked if Kentucky hospitals have enough specialists to operate the ventilators around the clock for an extended period of time if they reach or extend beyond capacity, a worry in some other states.
"We talk about running out of staff before we run out of beds," he said. "We think it’s the same with ventilators." He said that if ventilator staff go out sick, hospitals "have to start bringing in people who don’t do it on a daily basis and our outcomes aren’t as good."
Beshear again warned that if cases continue to escalate, the state's health-care system will become overwhelmed, and said it is at "a tipping point." He asked Kentuckians whether they were willing to make sacrifices to ensure everyone has access to care when and if they need it, and said:
"We're taking action before we hit the point of no return, because that point is close, folks. If we don't take action now, what we're talking about will happen. Taking action before Thanksgiving is critical to make sure that the surge that we all expect to see afterwards, [to] make sure that we're as ready for it as we can [be]."
Beshear pointed to examples in other states as cases surge across the nation. He said New York has had to
reopen a field hospital, the
Mayo Clinic's Wisconsin hospitals
have been forced to put beds in lobbies and a parking garage because they have exceeded capacity, and 22% of hospitals nationwide
say they will face a critical staff shortage in the next week.
Because this surge is happening all across the nation, Beshear warned, "There's nobody coming to help us. When our Kentucky providers run out, there's no one coming to our aid. We have to protect ourselves and the threat is so very real."
In an open letter, hospitals and health departments in the Paducah area pleaded with the public to wear masks, wash hands frequently, and practice social distancing. “We’re under some pretty significant stress right now,” Murray-Calloway County Hospital CEO Jerry Penner told Murray's WKMS. “Our resources are getting tight and our beds are filling. . .. We’re getting ready to go into a significant holiday when people normally get together. Now all of a sudden we’re asking people to wear masks and in some cases, the governor is asking them not to have large groups at home. We can only imagine the two weeks after Thanksgiving, we’re gonna have another potential blossom of a number of cases. We just need everyone’s help to think about what they’re doing.
Beshear shared a video of health-care workers asking Americans to wear a mask, and his news release noted a recent study in Kansas from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that shows on average, counties that mandated mask-wearing saw a 6% reduction in cases; in contrast, the counties that opted out saw a 100% increase in cases.
The governor announced five more confirmed deaths from covid-19, bringing the state's death toll to 1,792: a 73-year-old Fayette County woman, a 73-year-old Harlan County man, a 77-year-old Webster County man and two McCracken County men, 85 and 88.
Beshear honored the life of LaTasha Benton of Lexington, who died of covid-19 complications at only 43. Beshear said she was a key member of the Lexington community, who worked on issues such as tenants’ rights, affordable housing and criminal justice reform.
Benton was
featured in a
New York Times series about people who have died of covid-19. In the article, her mother, Stephanie Pace, said that even after two kidney transplants, two strokes and two hip replacements, she never complained, saying, "She was my little bionic girl." Beshear said she tested positive for the virus at the end of October and died on Nov. 6. She is survived by her son, Daniel, her two brothers and her mother.
"LaTasha, we are so sorry, and we grieve with your family," Beshear said. "I will wear my mask for you and I hope everybody else does, too."
In other coronavirus news Monday: